WillDeadpoolbe the first superhero movie to land a Best Picture Oscar nomination? It sure is looking possible. The film was in development for years before 20th Century Fox finally greenlit the R-rated superhero movie, albeit with a much smaller budget than what traditionally accompanies a film of this genre. ButDeadpoolwas a massive success when it opened last February, going on to gross $783 million worldwide. It was funny and amusing and filthy, and fans quickly began demanding a sequel, turning this little movie nobody wanted to make into one of the most anticipated superhero franchises around right now. And that was that,Deadpoolwas a hit and it spawned a new superhero franchise. Done and done. Or so we thought…
Fox began an awards campaign forDeadpooland starRyan Reynoldslast fall, which seemed amusing but obviously had no chance of succeeding. Reynolds then scored a Golden Globe nod as did the film itself for Best Picture - Musical or Comedy, but those are the Globes—they’re wacky! They nominatedThe Touristfor pete’s sake, so that didn’t really mean anything.
Alongside a few mentions on critics’ Top 10 lists here and there, the film’s first serious recognition came from the Writers Guild of America, which nominatedRhett RheeseandPaul Wernickfor Best Adapted Screenplay. It was a shocking validation, but it was no fluke. Now the film has scoreda coveted nomination from the Producers Guild of America, and folks are starting to seriously consider the possibility theDeadpoolcould be a Best Picture Oscar nominee.
Why do the WGA and PGA nominations suddenly makeDeadpoola contender? Well the guilds are seen as the biggest predictors of potential Oscar nominations and eventual winners, given that some of those who vote for the WGA awards and PGA awards are also Academy members. There’s genuine voter overlap, they’re groups made up of actual industry professionals just like the Academy, and so seeing what nominations arise from a voting body such as this can oftentimes mirror the eventual Oscar nominees.
Thus, withDeadpoolnow having been nominated for a Writers Guild of America award and Best Picture from the Producers Guild, it’d be sillynotto consider the possibility that the film could actually score an Oscar nomination for Best Picture.
The PGA nominees rarely match up exactly with the Best Picture Oscar lineup, but they do have significant overlap. Here’s a quick overview of how many PGA nominees became Oscar nominees over the past couple of years:
Number of PGA Nominees That Were Also Oscar Nominees
So, as you can see, the PGA’s list of nominees usually misses just two or three of the eventual Oscar nominees. And this year’s list is as follows:
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Looking closer at the films in years past that made the PGA cut but didn’t get an Oscar nomination may give us a better idea ofDeadpool’s chances. Last year,Sicarioearned both a PGA nomination and a WGA nomination—just likeDeadpool—but missed out on Oscar. And two years ago,Gone Girl—a commercial success and more of a “popcorn movie” than many other traditional awards players—also scored both PGA and WGA noms and missed the Oscar cut. Same withNightcrawler. These are somewhat darker films with genre-like undertones, so it could be a trend that continues withDeadpool, meaning no Best Picture nomination. Or it could just be a coincidental statistic.
And therein lies the rub. We can crunch numbers all day, but the voting for Oscars is done by living human beings with tastes of their own. Sure there are trends that give us an idea of whatmighthappen, but it’s possibleDeadpoollanded a PGA nomination simply because it was an incredibly tough film to actually get produced. Could enough Academy voters putDeadpoolas #1 on their ballot to give it a Best Picture nod? It only takes 300 to make the cut, so absolutely it’s possible. Will it happen?Maybe.
If I had to guess right now I’d say no—it might get close, but I’m dubious it’ll land on the final list with films likeLa La Land,Arrival, andMoonlightvying for that #1 position on the ballots. Then again, enough people putExtremely Loud and Incredibly Closeas #1 on their ballots overThe Tree of Life,The Artist,The Help, etc. for that movie to land a Best Picture nomination, so stranger things have certainly happened.
The interesting addendum, of course, is that the whole reason the Academy expanded the Best Picture field from five nominees to anywhere up to 10 is to include more commercial films followingThe Dark Knight’s surprising snub.Christopher Nolan’s masterwork was a virtual lock for a nomination, but lost out in the end. That serious, thematically probing, deeply dramatic film was poised to be the first superhero movie to score a Best Picture nomination because, well, only a “very serious” superhero movie could actually be in that conversation at all. Ironically,Deadpoolof all things—a potty-mouthed, juvenile comedy—could be the one that breaks that barrier.
For more on the Oscar race,click hereto catch up on all of my Oscar Beat installments and peruse links to my predictions articles below.
