Editor’s note: The below contains spoilers for Shōgun Episode 7.
Week after week,Shōgunmakes a point of surprising the audience. Last week’s episode, “A Stick of Time,” sees Lord Yoshii Toranaga (Hiroyuki Sanada) facing a difficult decision as he finds himself betrayed by his own brother, Saeki Nobutatsu (Eita Okuno): either he surrenders himself to the Council of Regents to be likely executed, or he confronts them with his army and dooms his followers to an inevitable and bloody defeat. By now, we know Toranaga to be a master tactician who always has an ace up his sleeve, but, this time,it seems he has been outplayed as he calmly surrenders. Is he really out of options, though, or is he about to surprise everyone once again?
Shogun (2024)
When a mysterious European ship is found marooned in a nearby fishing village, Lord Yoshii Toranaga discovers secrets that could tip the scales of power and devastate his enemies.
Powerful as He Is, Toranaga Also Has Insecurities on ‘Shōgun’
“A Stick of Time” is far from the first episode to incorporate a flashback inShōgun— but in this one,a young Yoshii Toranaga (Kai Coulter) wins his first battle at just 12 years old, and is asked to assist in his adversary Mizoguchi’s (Ryo Hayashida)seppuku. Before Mizoguchi does the deed, however, he leaves young Toranaga with ominous words: “Maybe we’ll meet again in the afterlife. Maybe the one holding the sword will be me.” It’s the sort of thing that is bound to stay in anyone’s mind for a long time if they hear it at such a young age.
In the present, Toranaga invites his half-brother, Saeki, to have dinner before presenting him with an alliance proposal. Everything appears to be going well, and Toranaga’s son, Nagakado (Yuki Kura), is having fun listening to stories about how his father was when he was young.Saeki tells the story of Toranaga’s first battle, but the tale is greatly exaggerated. Saeki says that Toranaga, “the boy warlord,” faced a disgraced Mizoguchi and took his rival’s head with a single swing of his sword. Later, after Saeki has alreadyrevealed his betrayaland Toranaga is about to tell his commanders about his decision to surrender, he recounts alongside Hiromatsu (Tokuma Nishioka) how things really went down, and that a young Toranaga had to strike nine times before Mizoguchi’s head came off.

It’s not clear if Saeki exaggerated his account on purpose to make Toranaga uncomfortable or if that is really what people say about Toranaga’s first battle. While reports of his fame may have been greatly exaggerated, one of the central topics of the episode is thatToranaga certainly doesn’t feel as powerful as people believe he is. For example, he couldn’t deliver the killing blow to Mizoguchi when he was 12 years old, and he still can’t bring himself to go all-in against his enemies at 58, now an established warlord. There always seems to be much more going on inside Toranaga’s mind than what he lets on, and his fears are certainly among that, but his best plays have all been secret, too. He may be insecure, but it’s difficult to believe that Toranaga would simply go gently into that good night after such an accomplished life as a warlord.
Is Toranaga Planning a Secret Assault on Osaka Castle in ‘Shōgun’?
With three episodes left until the end ofShōgun’s single season, the story is starting to move toward its endgame. Lord Toranaga’s betrayal by Saeki and subsequent arrest means those narrative wheels are starting to turn, as he’s being taken to a key location in the series: Osaka. This is where the Council of Regents is located, led byLord Ishido Kazunari(Takehiro Ira). It may feel like it’s the end of the line, but for someone as politically skilled as Toranaga,what seems like a disadvantage at first may soon become the key to solving his problem.
At the beginning ofShōgun, most of the plot takes place in Osaka. Although he is a powerful warlord and a member of the Council of Regents, Toranaga begins the series as a hostage of his Council peers in Osaka. Despite his condition, though, he carries on his duties normally, including being the tutor of theTaikō’s young heir, Nakamura Yaechiyo (Sen Mars), and even ruling his whole domain from afar.These two things may be what save him in Osaka and even turn the tables on the Council. Toranaga has always hada respectful and even warm relationshipwith theTaikō’s heir. Now, the boy may be under his motherOchiba-no-Kata’s (Fumi Nikaido), protection, but as a young teenager, his word still holds value, and he is probably still fond of Toranaga, something that may delay any further punishment, especially an execution.
While performing his duties in Osaka, Toranaga still managed tosecretly rule his domainfrom afar and plot his escape. This means that he cleverly used his entourage, sure, but likely had some inside help that the series hasn’t made us aware of yet. Regardless of his status as a hostage, Toranaga is admired, respected, and even feared among ordinary people and soldiers, andit isn’t hard to imagine that there are workers in Osaka Castle who secretly support him. While he may use this to plot another escape from the castle, it could also be dangerous to his enemies there, as it would facilitate orders and even the coordination of an attack on the castle from both inside and outside.
The day following Saeki’s betrayal, Toranaga is pondering his possibilities at a torii gate as Nagakado, Hiromatsu, and Toda Buntaro (Shinnosuke Abe) hover nearby. Buntaro says he should sneak out of Ajiro village to rally the rest of Toranaga’s troops in Edo,implying the very real possibility of an outside attack on Osaka Castle once Toranaga has been arrested. Buntaro’s father, Hiromatsu, tells him to forget about it and obeywhatever Toranaga decides, but, still, the news that their lord is about to be unfairly executed by the Council is sure to wind these forces up, potentially even leading to an attack from bothinsideandoutsideOsaka.
Toranaga Keeping Everything Close to the Vest May Cause Unrest on ‘Shōgun’
In the first episode ofShōgun, smuggler Vasco Rodrigues (Nestor Carbonell) tells Blackthorne (Cosmo Jarvis) about the Japanese people’s belief in the three hearts of a man: “One in his mouth, for the world to know. Another in his chest, just for his friends. And a secret heart, buried deepwhere no one can find it. That is a heart a man must keep if he wants to survive.” Lord Toranaga is the perfect embodiment of this belief, acting decisively whenever possible, butkeeping things very close to the vest until the last minute in order for everything to work. It may have worked so far, but, this time, tragedy has already struck due to his lack of trust in his allies.
If Toranaga indeed has a plan about what to do about his arrest in Osaka, his allies aren’t aware of it, and it wouldn’t be the first time, either. When he makes his escape from Osaka at the beginning of the season,Yabushige(Tadanobu Asano) says he would like to know the next time Toranaga has a plan he’s keeping secret from his enemies, to which Toranaga simply replies that he will “keep it in mind.” He clearly hasn’t, because, once again, Toranaga’s actions surprise everyone. Blackthorne has an outburst when Toranaga surrenders to Saeki and storms off in search of his ship, the Erasmus. Yabushige now has no allies among Lord Ishido’s ranks, and is desperate to find a way to stay alive. Nagakado even devisesa plan of his own with Lady Kiku(Yuka Kouri) to kill Saeki, but ends up dying himself.
It’s clear that not all of Toranaga’s followers agree with his decision to surrender. He may have a greater plan in mind and may believe that he has to keep others in the dark about it, but keeping everything secret about it this time has already backfired with the death of his son. Hopefully, Toranaga’s master plan will work, but then he will have another issue to deal with —losing the trust of those around him.
Shōgunis streaming on Hulu in the U.S. New episodes are released weekly on Tuesdays.